Quand les tirs au but sont injustes. Analysis of a fair mechanism for penalty shoot-out in soccer competitions.

Défense de mémoire de Monsieur Nguyen Guillaume

 

Soccer competitions and its mechanism of breaking a tie score have triggered many discussions. Indeed, researches have been carried out to determine whether penalty shoot-outs were fair for both teams. Furthermore, the conclusions of such researches showed that this was not a simple question as they leveraged various results. However, following researches base themselves on the existence of an advantage for the team going first in the penalty shoot-out. In this paper we will determine how previous researchers reached their conclusions and carry out our own analysis of the influencing factors when looking at the scoring probability of a shot. Furthermore, we will compare the various mechanisms that have been suggested to tackle with this unfair advantage. Namely the “ABAB” or the current mechanism, the “ABBA” or the tennis tie-break mechanism, the “Catch-Up” and the “Adjusted Catch-Up”. To do so, we will and build up a simulator for each mechanism in order to compare them.

 

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