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Economics seminars - Laurent Ferrara

"Short-Term Macroeconomic Forecasting and Turning Point Detection after the Great Recession"

Catégorie : conférence/cours/séminaire (spécialisé)
Date : 12/02/2019 16:00 - 12/02/2019 18:00
Lieu : E43 (4ème étage) - Fac. Sc. économiques
Orateur(s) : Laurent Ferrara

Dear all,

You are cordially invited to the following seminar co-organized by CERPE, CRED and CEREFIM at the Department of Economics in Namur.

Hope to see you all,

"Learning on the Job and the Cost of Business Cycles"

Speaker: Laurent Ferrara

(Banque de France)

Date and time: Tuesday, February 12, 2019 at 4pm

Room E43, Rempart de la Vierge 8, Namur




We show that business cycles reduce welfare through a decrease in the average level of employment in a labor market search model with learning on-the-job and skill loss during unemployment. Empirically, unemployment and the job finding rate are negatively correlated. Since new jobs are the product of these two, business cycles imply that fewer news jobs are created and employment falls. Learning on-the-job implies that the decrease in employment reduces aggregate human capital. This reduces the incentives to post vacancies, further decreasing employment and human capital. We quantify this mechanism and find large output and welfare costs of business cycles.

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